How MLBs Tankathon Is Skewing The Trade Market

Indians155291.795.313.31.9 Where each team stands at the 2018 deadlineTeams ranked by Doyle Number — how many future wins of talent a team should trade away to acquire 1 win this season Athletics153287.227.62.70.8 Cautious BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Astros158699.291.621.12.2 Brewers152285.051.94.21.2 Twins149679.14.00.20.1 Padres143966.60.00.00.0 Expected wins are derived from the team’s current Elo rating.Source: FanGraphs.com Braves150781.534.92.00.8 White Sox143766.00.00.00.0 Orioles143265.00.00.00.0 Phillies150681.551.53.01.0 Solid BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Rockies151583.336.52.50.9 Rangers148276.10.00.00.0 Diamondbacks153287.347.5%4.7%1.2 Red Sox1591100.296.7%23.8%2.2 Although the share of prospects in the hands of top teams isn’t a perfect predictor of how many deadline deals will go down,3Since 2009, its correlation with the share of all trades that happened at the deadline was 0.36. it does speak broadly to the ability of contenders to act on the advice that their Doyle Number would recommend. In 2016, for instance, the Cubs’ surplus of top prospects — and urgency to win a World Series after a 108-year dry spell — led Chicago to trade a number of gifted farmhands (headlined by stellar 2018 rookie Gleyber Torres) to the Yankees for a few months’ rental of closer Aroldis Chapman.It wasn’t the first time that future talent was pawned off for an immediate payoff, and it was far from the last. Because of their low pay and endless promise, minor leaguers serve as the ultimate grease in the wheels of the trade-deadline machine. And they may yet help smooth along another blockbuster in the next few hours, perhaps one including Bryce Harper, Jacob deGrom, J.T. Realmuto or Chris Archer. But if the deadline does end up feeling a little slower than we’d expect from the buyer/seller profiles implied by this year’s standings, it could just be because most of the buyers have already bought and the sellers have already sold.Check out our latest MLB predictions. Cubs155692.479.311.71.9 Tigers144968.70.20.00.0 Cardinals151383.06.60.40.2 Mariners151984.440.63.11.0 Angels151783.81.50.10.0 Blue Jays148576.70.00.00.0 Reds147975.40.20.00.0 Giants149879.53.70.20.1 Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline — this year’s version of which falls at 4 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday — is an annual chance for teams to take stock of their short- and long-term future plans. As our research has shown in the past, World Series front-runners should generally be willing to give up quite a large bushel of future assets in exchange for talent that might bring them a ring in the here and now. Meanwhile, teams on the fringe of the playoffs should be relatively indifferent between playing for the future or the present, and bottom-feeders should frantically sell everything they can.Those guidelines become apparent when we run our “Doyle Number” statistic for this season’s teams. As a quick refresher, the Doyle Number1Named after the infamous 1987 trade in which the Detroit Tigers sent future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, then a 20-year-old prospect, to the Atlanta Braves for 36-year-old Doyle Alexander. represents how many future wins of talent a team should be willing to part with to acquire 1 extra win of rental talent over the remainder of this season (including the playoffs).So the Boston Red Sox, who have the highest Doyle Number in baseball, should be willing to trade away up to 2.2 wins of future talent in exchange for every 1 win of talent they acquire for this year’s stretch run — they’re clear deadline buyers. By contrast, teams with Doyle numbers around zero are obvious sellers — they have no reason to give up future talent to acquire extra wins this season. Finally, a Doyle of 1.0 means a team could swing either way between buying and selling.Here are this year’s Doyle Numbers (as of July 30): Royals141461.00.00.00.0 Nationals152284.99.1%0.7%0.3 Rays150581.20.60.00.0 Pirates150080.08.00.40.2 This year’s crop of buyers is unusually robust — three teams have Doyle Numbers north of 2.0 (most recent years have usually had only one or two) and six teams are at or above a Doyle of 1.8 (when the typical year has two or three in that range). At the same time, 12 teams have Doyle Numbers that round to 0.0, compared with an average of nine in the previous three years we’ve been calculating the metric.It’s all a consequence of this supremely stratified, tank-tastic MLB season. On the one hand, you might imagine that such a surplus of buyers and sellers would pave the way for more trades than usual, since a lot of teams have their motivations aligned for deal-making. And there have been some notable moves made thus far: Manny Machado to the Dodgers, Cole Hamels to the Cubs, Ian Kinsler to the Red Sox, Mike Moustakas to the Brewers, J.A. Happ to the Yankees and so forth. But the particulars of this year’s market could also play some tricks with what we think of as ordinary deadline business, when we consider who has how much of which asset — long-term vs. short, young talent vs. established stars. Elite teams can only swap with rebuilding ones if they have the right prospects to send away, and there’s evidence that many of the best youngsters have already flowed from the contenders to the tankers before anybody had a chance to do their deadline shopping.To see this, we can look at how many members of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects are in the farm systems of top teams, as opposed to everybody else. For each full season since 1990,2So, excluding partial seasons in 1994 and 1995. I gathered the list of top prospects and assigned each ranking slot its average future value, according to my research here. To focus on prospects that haven’t yet made a dent in the big leagues — i.e., the kind more likely to be thrown into deadline trades — I filtered out players who exhausted their rookie eligibility during the season in question (or, for this year, players who are on pace to do so). Finally, I calculated the percentage of leaguewide prospect value that belonged to teams in the top third of all MLB teams by projected end-of-season record (using our Elo ratings, as of July 30 each season). And this year, only 27.5 percent of prospect value is in the systems of top-tier teams, the lowest such mark in any full season since 1991. Yankees158398.677.517.22.1 Marlins145068.90.10.00.0 Dodgers156494.265.611.01.8 Mets147073.40.10.00.0 SellersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number read more

Why your Roombas random patterns make total sense

first_img CNET Smart Home CNET Smart Home 24 Electrolux iRobot Neato Robots Inside our test room are objects and challenges designed to mimic what a robot will encounter as it cleans a room. That includes constructs designed to mimic large furniture like sofas or dressers, smaller objects like lamps or table and chair legs, and even surface irregularities like carpets, transitions between flooring and electrical cords. A camera mounted above captures a bird’s-eye view of all the action. From there we can figure out the path each vacuum takes during its cleaning cycle. This system also allows us to calculate how much of the floor a machine actually covers, and the time it takes to do it.   15 Photos Aug 31 • Best smart light bulbs for 2019 (plus switches, light strips, accessories and more) reading • Your Roomba takes a weird path to clean the floors in your home. Here’s why it matters See All Preview • Electrolux’s robot vac scans objects to map its path See it Aug 30 • iRobot Roomba S9 Plus vs. Neato Botvac D7 Connected Pure i9 Vacuum Cleaners Aug 30 • Battling bot vacs: iRobot Roomba S9+ vs Neato Botvac D7 Connected Electrolux Pure i9 The way a robot vacuum travels around the room as it cleans really matters. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET Any robot vacuum cleaner will remove at least some dirt from your floors. How much ground it covers, though, and its behavior moving through rooms will vary a great deal from model to model. The most important factor behind this is a robot’s navigation system. Its navigation technology, together with software, determines a vacuum’s actions. That plays a massive role in how well a given robot cleans a space, or even hunt for garden weeds. As you might expect, some robot vacuums perform the task better than others. Read more: How to prep your house so your robot vacuum won’t get stuck.Fortunately, our brand-new robot vacuum testing room at our warehouse lab in Louisville, Kentucky, can help us show the differences between robot vacuums, including how well they perceive, interact and otherwise move around in a physical space.  robot-vac-group-shot-1To break in our new test room, we ran nine current robot vacuum models across its floor. Tyler Lizenby/CNET Robot navigation on a budget There are three main types of systems robot vacuum cleaners typically use to navigate a space. The first is a simple collection of collision, wheel, brush and cliff sensors. They tell robots when they hit or are about to hit objects. With that information, they can slow down or change course altogether. Additionally these sensors help vacuums avoid falls down flights of stairs. You tend to find these systems in budget robot vacuums. The upside is they cost a lot less than more complex machines. The $349 SharkNinja Ion S87 and $199 Eufy Robovac 11S are examples of products with this style of navigation. eufy-black-navBasic robot vacuums equipped with collision and proximity sensors, like the Eufy RoboVac 11S Max here, bounce around obstacles to find their way, but miss a lot of open floor space. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET The downside is that they operate in a random fashion, bumping into things and veering willy-nilly around the room. The very first iRobot Roombas did the same. Sadly that results in incomplete floor coverage. Spots in tight places (corners, table and chair legs) get lots of repeat attention. Open areas, however, are likely vacuumed once (or perhaps not at all) since the robot travels in a straight line until it detects something in its path. deebot500-covThis image is designed to show the actual area the robot covered for cleaning. As you can tell, the Ecovacs Deebot 500 was very inconsistent.  Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET These machines take a long time to run too, roughly three times as long as the most advanced robot vacuums need to attack the same area. Sure, long clean times won’t matter much if you tend to vacuum when nobody’s home, and have all day to do it. When company is due to arrive in 45 minutes, or other time-limited situations, that’s a problem. Visual or optical navigation Other robot vacuums combine the basic array of collision sensors with a main visual sensor that’s augmented by a lens. These vacuums use a navigation algorithm called VSLAM (or visual simultaneous location and mapping). The optical system can identify landmarks on the ceiling, as well as judge the distance between walls. irobot-roomba-i7-navThe iRobot Roomba i7+ shows a more logical, thorough navigation path thanks to its optical technology. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET VSLAM also calculates the vacuum’s relative position in a room in real time, letting the bot create a map as it cleans. Robot vacuums that operate this way navigate a room with greater efficiency, systematically cleaning the floor in a logical pattern. They won’t waste time vacuuming areas of a room the robot knows it has already travelled over. As a result, they can cover the same area in a shorter time, and with better coverage than a robot based only on physical sensors. iRobot’s current line of Roombas, such as the $1,099 i7+ and $1,299 S9+, have this kind of navigation system. The same is true of higher-end Ecovac models like the $499 Deebot 711. i7-covThat optical navigation translates to much more thorough coverage across our test room floor. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET Visually driven robot vacuums have a few drawbacks. Since their optical sensors need at least some amount of ambient light present, they have trouble finding their way in completely dark rooms. Compared with basic models, you’ll pay extra for these more intelligent robots too.   Laser navigation Another way robot vacuums can sense their environment is with lidar (light detection and ranging). It’s the same sort of technology you’ll find in many self-driving car prototypes such as those from Waymo and Uber. All Neato Botvacs use this method, including the $829 Botvac D7 Connected, the company’s current flagship model. Here’s a view of the Neato Botvac D6 Connected using its laser LIDAR SLAM system in our test room. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET Top-tier Ecovac Deebots like the $549 Ozmo 930 have built-in lidar too. In this sophisticated system, a turret-based laser mounted on the top of the robot vacuum illuminates objects to help the robot figure out their location and distance. Vacuums equipped with lidar can also detect the size and shape of things in their path. neato-botvac-d6-connected-navGuided by lidar, the navigation pattern of Neato’s Botvac D6 was very systematic, optimizing its pathing to get the job done completely, and in a short amount of time. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET They actively scan their surroundings too. That’s why these machines tend to cover floors with extreme efficiency For instance, both the Neato Botvac D7 and Botvac D6 cleaned our test room floor in just under 21 minutes. The $349 SharkNinja Ion S87, with its basic navigation, spent 1 hour and 9 minutes cleaning the floor of our test room. Likewise, two budget Ecovacs machines, the $279 Deebot 500 and $249 Deebot 600, both had cleaning times of over 1 hour (60 and 64 minutes respectively). The longest though was the $199 Eufy RoboVac 11S Max (100 minutes, 34 seconds), also the cheapest model in this group.   neato-botvac-d6-connected-covEven with a pathing plan that looks sparse, the Neato Botvac D6 managed to cover essentially the entire test room floor. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET Shorter runtime isn’t the only benefit to lidar. Paired with the SLAM (or simultaneous location and mapping) algorithm, these robots also create detailed maps on the fly. You can perform useful interactions with those maps too. For instance, you can drop virtual boundaries within them, or make restricted zones at will for the robot to avoid. These vacuums also navigate in the dark if necessary. All that is great. Just remember you’ll pay a premium for these machines. They typically occupy the ultra-high-end rung of the market.   Hybrid systems A new approach a few robot vacuums take is to combine multiple navigate technology into one system. That includes brush, cliff, wheel and optical sensors, as well as laser emitters. There aren’t that many products that do this at the moment. One you can buy today is the $499 Electrolux Pure i9. This unique robot vacuum is equipped with a pair of front-firing lasers. Sitting in the middle of them, on the vacuum’s front face, is also a big optical sensor behind a lens. electrolux-pure-i9-navThe Electrolux Pure i9, using a hybrid navigation and sensor system, definitely missed areas of our test room floor. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET Even with all that tech, the Pure i9’s movement through our test room appeared confused. It didn’t roll along confidently like the Neato and Roomba machines. Instead it muddled through it in fits and starts, constantly pivoting in different directions. The Electrolux Pure i9 uses a hybrid optical and laser navigation system. Even so, it often looked confused rolling across our test room floor.  Brian Bennett/CNET With so many tools, as well as enhanced software and processing power, robots with hybrid navigation have the potential to offer unheard of levels of automation and intelligence. I think the upcoming Ecovacs Deebot 960 looks especially promising. Ecovacs says the vacuum will be able to actually identify objects like shoes, clothing and piles of toys. electrolux-pure-i9-covRobot vacuums with hybrid sensor systems have promise. The Electrolux Pure i9 is one, but it didn’t cover our test room floor as well as other machines. Gianmarco Chumbe/CNET And the company says the robot’s AI-based recognition will learn new objects over time. Perhaps that list will include pet messes and other wet, goopy or sticky debris. That would be a welcome update, potentially saving your flooring and your carpet from becoming even messier than before the robot vacuum started cleaning. A note on our new robot vacuum testing room We’ve conducted straight-line, cleaning performance-based tests for robot vacuums in the past, but that really only tells part of the picture about how well a robot vacuum will clean your home. How well it can navigate a space, how much area it actually covers and how long it takes are all important factors, too. To help us capture that information, we built an industry-standard testing room, as specified by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), the international standards body that, among other things, governs robot vacuum testing methods for manufacturers. center_img Look for more robot vacuum testing from us in the near future. For now, we can at least say conclusively that not all robot vacuums are the same, and the way a bot navigates around a room will impact not only its cleaning performance, but also how long it takes to get the job done. $499 Aug 31 • Alexa can tell you if someone breaks into your house Share your voice See It 3:43 Mentioned Above Electrolux Pure i9 Lasers, sensors and robots, oh my: Some robot vacuums… CNET may get a commission from retail offers. $614 Some robot vacuums have a better sense of direction than others Tags Now playing: Watch this: Comments •last_img read more

Woman killed as two cars collide in Dhaka

first_imgTwo cars collide in Dhaka killing a woman and wounding five. A collected illustrationA woman was killed and five of her family members were injured as an Uber car carrying them collided with a private car at Bata Signal intersection in the capital on Saturday morning, reports UNB.The deceased was Fulbibi, 55, wife of Abul Kalam, from Barishal.Kazi Shakil, sub-inspector of New Market police station, said the Uber car carrying six people overturned on the road around 7:30 am following a collision with the private car, leaving all six passengers injured.The injured were taken to Dhaka Medical College and Hospital where the physicians declared her dead.The family of Abul Kalam came to Dhaka from Barishal this morning for Abul Kalam’s treatment. The accident occurred when they were going to Dhanmondi from Sadarghat.last_img read more