How MLBs Tankathon Is Skewing The Trade Market

Indians155291.795.313.31.9 Where each team stands at the 2018 deadlineTeams ranked by Doyle Number — how many future wins of talent a team should trade away to acquire 1 win this season Athletics153287.227.62.70.8 Cautious BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Astros158699.291.621.12.2 Brewers152285.051.94.21.2 Twins149679.14.00.20.1 Padres143966.60.00.00.0 Expected wins are derived from the team’s current Elo rating.Source: FanGraphs.com Braves150781.534.92.00.8 White Sox143766.00.00.00.0 Orioles143265.00.00.00.0 Phillies150681.551.53.01.0 Solid BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Rockies151583.336.52.50.9 Rangers148276.10.00.00.0 Diamondbacks153287.347.5%4.7%1.2 Red Sox1591100.296.7%23.8%2.2 Although the share of prospects in the hands of top teams isn’t a perfect predictor of how many deadline deals will go down,3Since 2009, its correlation with the share of all trades that happened at the deadline was 0.36. it does speak broadly to the ability of contenders to act on the advice that their Doyle Number would recommend. In 2016, for instance, the Cubs’ surplus of top prospects — and urgency to win a World Series after a 108-year dry spell — led Chicago to trade a number of gifted farmhands (headlined by stellar 2018 rookie Gleyber Torres) to the Yankees for a few months’ rental of closer Aroldis Chapman.It wasn’t the first time that future talent was pawned off for an immediate payoff, and it was far from the last. Because of their low pay and endless promise, minor leaguers serve as the ultimate grease in the wheels of the trade-deadline machine. And they may yet help smooth along another blockbuster in the next few hours, perhaps one including Bryce Harper, Jacob deGrom, J.T. Realmuto or Chris Archer. But if the deadline does end up feeling a little slower than we’d expect from the buyer/seller profiles implied by this year’s standings, it could just be because most of the buyers have already bought and the sellers have already sold.Check out our latest MLB predictions. Cubs155692.479.311.71.9 Tigers144968.70.20.00.0 Cardinals151383.06.60.40.2 Mariners151984.440.63.11.0 Angels151783.81.50.10.0 Blue Jays148576.70.00.00.0 Reds147975.40.20.00.0 Giants149879.53.70.20.1 Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline — this year’s version of which falls at 4 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday — is an annual chance for teams to take stock of their short- and long-term future plans. As our research has shown in the past, World Series front-runners should generally be willing to give up quite a large bushel of future assets in exchange for talent that might bring them a ring in the here and now. Meanwhile, teams on the fringe of the playoffs should be relatively indifferent between playing for the future or the present, and bottom-feeders should frantically sell everything they can.Those guidelines become apparent when we run our “Doyle Number” statistic for this season’s teams. As a quick refresher, the Doyle Number1Named after the infamous 1987 trade in which the Detroit Tigers sent future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, then a 20-year-old prospect, to the Atlanta Braves for 36-year-old Doyle Alexander. represents how many future wins of talent a team should be willing to part with to acquire 1 extra win of rental talent over the remainder of this season (including the playoffs).So the Boston Red Sox, who have the highest Doyle Number in baseball, should be willing to trade away up to 2.2 wins of future talent in exchange for every 1 win of talent they acquire for this year’s stretch run — they’re clear deadline buyers. By contrast, teams with Doyle numbers around zero are obvious sellers — they have no reason to give up future talent to acquire extra wins this season. Finally, a Doyle of 1.0 means a team could swing either way between buying and selling.Here are this year’s Doyle Numbers (as of July 30): Royals141461.00.00.00.0 Nationals152284.99.1%0.7%0.3 Rays150581.20.60.00.0 Pirates150080.08.00.40.2 This year’s crop of buyers is unusually robust — three teams have Doyle Numbers north of 2.0 (most recent years have usually had only one or two) and six teams are at or above a Doyle of 1.8 (when the typical year has two or three in that range). At the same time, 12 teams have Doyle Numbers that round to 0.0, compared with an average of nine in the previous three years we’ve been calculating the metric.It’s all a consequence of this supremely stratified, tank-tastic MLB season. On the one hand, you might imagine that such a surplus of buyers and sellers would pave the way for more trades than usual, since a lot of teams have their motivations aligned for deal-making. And there have been some notable moves made thus far: Manny Machado to the Dodgers, Cole Hamels to the Cubs, Ian Kinsler to the Red Sox, Mike Moustakas to the Brewers, J.A. Happ to the Yankees and so forth. But the particulars of this year’s market could also play some tricks with what we think of as ordinary deadline business, when we consider who has how much of which asset — long-term vs. short, young talent vs. established stars. Elite teams can only swap with rebuilding ones if they have the right prospects to send away, and there’s evidence that many of the best youngsters have already flowed from the contenders to the tankers before anybody had a chance to do their deadline shopping.To see this, we can look at how many members of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects are in the farm systems of top teams, as opposed to everybody else. For each full season since 1990,2So, excluding partial seasons in 1994 and 1995. I gathered the list of top prospects and assigned each ranking slot its average future value, according to my research here. To focus on prospects that haven’t yet made a dent in the big leagues — i.e., the kind more likely to be thrown into deadline trades — I filtered out players who exhausted their rookie eligibility during the season in question (or, for this year, players who are on pace to do so). Finally, I calculated the percentage of leaguewide prospect value that belonged to teams in the top third of all MLB teams by projected end-of-season record (using our Elo ratings, as of July 30 each season). And this year, only 27.5 percent of prospect value is in the systems of top-tier teams, the lowest such mark in any full season since 1991. Yankees158398.677.517.22.1 Marlins145068.90.10.00.0 Dodgers156494.265.611.01.8 Mets147073.40.10.00.0 SellersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number read more

Sore losers TMC damaged tubewells water lines after Lok Sabha results in

first_imgDIBYANGSHU SARKAR/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Bharatiya Janata Party has accused the Trinamool Congress of acting like sore losers after the disastrous Lok Sabha election results for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. It is being claimed that Trinamool Congress cadres damaged public property “to teach a lesson to the locals” for supporting the saffron party. The BJP has registered a landslide victory in West Bengal and increased its seat count from two in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 18 this year.According to IANS, the Trinamool Congress cadres damaged tubewells and snapped water lines in three localities of West Burdwan and Birbhum districts. It was done as BJP received more votes in the Kanakpur polling booth of Birbhum Lok Sabha constituency.”All tubewells in the village have been damaged, because BJP has done well,” said local BJP worker Laltu Mondal.In protest, the villagers gheraoed the house of local panchayat member of Trinamool Congress, Panchanan Das. He denied his party’s hand in damaging the tubewells but promised to repair them.”Nobody can say that Trinamool, or a panchayat member, or some other local club has done all this. BJP has won. It is trying to put the blame on us,” he said. The tubewells were later repaired.last_img read more

Woman killed as two cars collide in Dhaka

first_imgTwo cars collide in Dhaka killing a woman and wounding five. A collected illustrationA woman was killed and five of her family members were injured as an Uber car carrying them collided with a private car at Bata Signal intersection in the capital on Saturday morning, reports UNB.The deceased was Fulbibi, 55, wife of Abul Kalam, from Barishal.Kazi Shakil, sub-inspector of New Market police station, said the Uber car carrying six people overturned on the road around 7:30 am following a collision with the private car, leaving all six passengers injured.The injured were taken to Dhaka Medical College and Hospital where the physicians declared her dead.The family of Abul Kalam came to Dhaka from Barishal this morning for Abul Kalam’s treatment. The accident occurred when they were going to Dhanmondi from Sadarghat.last_img read more

New Zealand parliament passes tougher gun laws

first_imgNew Zealand parliament. AFP File Photo.New Zealand lawmakers have almost unanimously passed sweeping gun reforms, paving the way for a ban on military-style semi-automatic weapons to enter into force as soon as Friday.Lawmakers passed the legislation on final reading, less than a month after a gunman entered two mosques in Christchurch killing 50 people.During the debate Wednesday prime minister Jacinda Ardern told parliamentarians she “vividly” recalled the moment after the massacre when she, without consulting widely, decided the government had to act.Ardern, her voice filled with emotion, said it was during a briefing with the police commissioner when she was told about the “nature of the attack”, the weapons used and how they were notified but had been obtained legally.”I could not fathom how weapons that could cause such destruction, and large-scale death could have been obtained legally in this country. I could not fathom that,” she told lawmakers.She could not, she said, face the public or “the victims that had been left behind from this terror attack and tell them hand-on-heart that our system and our laws allow these guns to be available and that was okay. Because it was not.”The new rules amend permissive 1983 gun laws that had the subject of multiple reform attempts.The sole holdout against the legislation was the ACT Party, which has a single seat in the 120 seat parliament.The new rules are aimed at removing semi-automatic firearms from circulation through a buy-back scheme, prohibition and harsh prison sentences.A hand-in amnesty will be in place until 30 September 2019, but perpetrators will face between two and ten years in jail for breaking the laws.The new laws also prohibit “semi-automatic firearms, magazines, and parts that can be used to assemble prohibited firearms.”The law will now need royal approval, in practice a rubber stamp, which is expected to take place on Thursday, paving the way for the rules to enter into force the next day.The bill was first introduced on 1 April. Its passage in barely ten days has surprised even the most ardent gun control advocates.last_img read more

Industry Acadmia conclave begins at VIT

first_imgVELLORE: Internet of Things 2018 – an Industry Academia conclave began at Vellore Institute of Technology. R K Shenoy, Senior Vice President at Robert Bosch Engineering and Business Solutions Private Limited, inaugurated the event at Kamaraj Auditorium recently. Anand A Samuel, Vice Chancellor of VIT and Anil Prakash, General Manager, Training and Development, Global Mobility, University Relation of Robert Bosch were also present at the ceremony organised by the School of Electronics Engineering (SENSE). Also Read – Add new books to your shelfElizabeth Rufus, Dean of SENSE, welcomed the gathering along with M Arun, event coordinator, who outlined the objectives of the conclave and Professor P Karthikeyan who thanked the gathering. Presiding over the function, Dr G Viswanathan, Founder and Chancellor of VIT, said that the Industry Academia Conclave was being held at VIT for the second year in a row. Towards this endeavour, VIT had tied up with over 1,000 industries and had also taken up research that was required for these industries. Further, they also provided opportunities for people to take up research at the University. Also Read – Over 2 hours screen time daily will make your kids impulsiveDr Viswanathan said that such industrial academic tie-ups would pave the way for devising means to increase industrial production and also to establish new methods to devise low cost means while at the same time implement high-end technological processes in industrial production. Along with an increased output in agricultural sector and growth of industries, India would become a developed nation. In his address, Shenoy said that it was very important for industries to work closely with educational institutions for increasing production and also for creating new innovations. The impact of these findings will significantly improve the quality of life of people. He said that there were many industries that were struggling to devise new means of production. And, adding that such conclaves would help in addressing the problem. More than 300 academicians, industry representatives, experts, young research scholars and students are taking part in the event, where the speakers would be discussing and also exchanging ideas on subjects like cloud computing, data analytics, security and block chain.last_img read more

Alitalia looks to reorganize to avoid collapse

first_img MILAN — The board of Italian carrier Alitalia says it’s filing for extraordinary administration as a result of unions’ rejection of a plan to relaunch the struggling company.The board expressed “deep regret” Tuesday that workers overwhelmingly rejected a government-brokered relaunch plan, which had softened planned job and salary cuts. The board said the outcome made it impossible to unlock the planned 2 billion euros in investments from both managing shareholder Etihad and a consortium of Italian companies that control a 51% stake. The company will therefore need to be reorganized, the board said.Italy’s economic development minister has said that the period of extraordinary administration, which is designed to help companies avoid failure, is expected to last about six months, during which a buyer would be sought. Share Alitalia looks to reorganize to avoid collapse << Previous PostNext Post >> Tuesday, May 2, 2017 center_img The Canadian Press Posted by Tags: Alitalialast_img read more