How MLBs Tankathon Is Skewing The Trade Market

Indians155291.795.313.31.9 Where each team stands at the 2018 deadlineTeams ranked by Doyle Number — how many future wins of talent a team should trade away to acquire 1 win this season Athletics153287.227.62.70.8 Cautious BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Astros158699.291.621.12.2 Brewers152285.051.94.21.2 Twins149679.14.00.20.1 Padres143966.60.00.00.0 Expected wins are derived from the team’s current Elo rating.Source: FanGraphs.com Braves150781.534.92.00.8 White Sox143766.00.00.00.0 Orioles143265.00.00.00.0 Phillies150681.551.53.01.0 Solid BuyersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number Rockies151583.336.52.50.9 Rangers148276.10.00.00.0 Diamondbacks153287.347.5%4.7%1.2 Red Sox1591100.296.7%23.8%2.2 Although the share of prospects in the hands of top teams isn’t a perfect predictor of how many deadline deals will go down,3Since 2009, its correlation with the share of all trades that happened at the deadline was 0.36. it does speak broadly to the ability of contenders to act on the advice that their Doyle Number would recommend. In 2016, for instance, the Cubs’ surplus of top prospects — and urgency to win a World Series after a 108-year dry spell — led Chicago to trade a number of gifted farmhands (headlined by stellar 2018 rookie Gleyber Torres) to the Yankees for a few months’ rental of closer Aroldis Chapman.It wasn’t the first time that future talent was pawned off for an immediate payoff, and it was far from the last. Because of their low pay and endless promise, minor leaguers serve as the ultimate grease in the wheels of the trade-deadline machine. And they may yet help smooth along another blockbuster in the next few hours, perhaps one including Bryce Harper, Jacob deGrom, J.T. Realmuto or Chris Archer. But if the deadline does end up feeling a little slower than we’d expect from the buyer/seller profiles implied by this year’s standings, it could just be because most of the buyers have already bought and the sellers have already sold.Check out our latest MLB predictions. Cubs155692.479.311.71.9 Tigers144968.70.20.00.0 Cardinals151383.06.60.40.2 Mariners151984.440.63.11.0 Angels151783.81.50.10.0 Blue Jays148576.70.00.00.0 Reds147975.40.20.00.0 Giants149879.53.70.20.1 Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline — this year’s version of which falls at 4 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday — is an annual chance for teams to take stock of their short- and long-term future plans. As our research has shown in the past, World Series front-runners should generally be willing to give up quite a large bushel of future assets in exchange for talent that might bring them a ring in the here and now. Meanwhile, teams on the fringe of the playoffs should be relatively indifferent between playing for the future or the present, and bottom-feeders should frantically sell everything they can.Those guidelines become apparent when we run our “Doyle Number” statistic for this season’s teams. As a quick refresher, the Doyle Number1Named after the infamous 1987 trade in which the Detroit Tigers sent future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, then a 20-year-old prospect, to the Atlanta Braves for 36-year-old Doyle Alexander. represents how many future wins of talent a team should be willing to part with to acquire 1 extra win of rental talent over the remainder of this season (including the playoffs).So the Boston Red Sox, who have the highest Doyle Number in baseball, should be willing to trade away up to 2.2 wins of future talent in exchange for every 1 win of talent they acquire for this year’s stretch run — they’re clear deadline buyers. By contrast, teams with Doyle numbers around zero are obvious sellers — they have no reason to give up future talent to acquire extra wins this season. Finally, a Doyle of 1.0 means a team could swing either way between buying and selling.Here are this year’s Doyle Numbers (as of July 30): Royals141461.00.00.00.0 Nationals152284.99.1%0.7%0.3 Rays150581.20.60.00.0 Pirates150080.08.00.40.2 This year’s crop of buyers is unusually robust — three teams have Doyle Numbers north of 2.0 (most recent years have usually had only one or two) and six teams are at or above a Doyle of 1.8 (when the typical year has two or three in that range). At the same time, 12 teams have Doyle Numbers that round to 0.0, compared with an average of nine in the previous three years we’ve been calculating the metric.It’s all a consequence of this supremely stratified, tank-tastic MLB season. On the one hand, you might imagine that such a surplus of buyers and sellers would pave the way for more trades than usual, since a lot of teams have their motivations aligned for deal-making. And there have been some notable moves made thus far: Manny Machado to the Dodgers, Cole Hamels to the Cubs, Ian Kinsler to the Red Sox, Mike Moustakas to the Brewers, J.A. Happ to the Yankees and so forth. But the particulars of this year’s market could also play some tricks with what we think of as ordinary deadline business, when we consider who has how much of which asset — long-term vs. short, young talent vs. established stars. Elite teams can only swap with rebuilding ones if they have the right prospects to send away, and there’s evidence that many of the best youngsters have already flowed from the contenders to the tankers before anybody had a chance to do their deadline shopping.To see this, we can look at how many members of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects are in the farm systems of top teams, as opposed to everybody else. For each full season since 1990,2So, excluding partial seasons in 1994 and 1995. I gathered the list of top prospects and assigned each ranking slot its average future value, according to my research here. To focus on prospects that haven’t yet made a dent in the big leagues — i.e., the kind more likely to be thrown into deadline trades — I filtered out players who exhausted their rookie eligibility during the season in question (or, for this year, players who are on pace to do so). Finally, I calculated the percentage of leaguewide prospect value that belonged to teams in the top third of all MLB teams by projected end-of-season record (using our Elo ratings, as of July 30 each season). And this year, only 27.5 percent of prospect value is in the systems of top-tier teams, the lowest such mark in any full season since 1991. Yankees158398.677.517.22.1 Marlins145068.90.10.00.0 Dodgers156494.265.611.01.8 Mets147073.40.10.00.0 SellersElo RatingExp. Wins per 162 gamesDiv. Series OddsWorld Series OddsDoyle Number read more

How Government Executive Plans To Double Revenue in Five Years

first_imgA website redesign follows in January. While he wouldn’t reveal hard numbers, Goldstone says that digital accounts for 65 percent of GE’s overall revenue. A $4 Million Business Intelligence GroupBeyond the magazine and website, the core for Government Executive Media is the Government Business Council, a research intelligence division that launched in 2007 to offer case studies to top GE advertisers. Today, services include research, content marketing, data, lead generation and events. “We can go to a company that wants proprietary research on a select topic–say cyber security–and create a research engine that funnels into custom content which can be used to create custom events,” says Goldstone. “Sponsors get assets from research and custom events which extend into webinars and white papers and other content marketing services. Everyone wants data and insider information to sell into that market.” Revenue for Government Business Council has grown more than 400 percent to almost $4 million, with the research business accounting for more than $1 million alone. “It’s also brought an additional $2 million to $3 million in media payments,” says Goldstone. “We wouldn’t have those media payments without the research and data delivery upfront.”While marketing services are all the rage for b-to-b publishers now, Goldstone says publishers need to understand what’s core to their business in terms of being scalable. “You can throw a million ideas at something like marketing services but there things that are core (research, content marketing) to GE and things where we aren’t the best in class provider. We do business with a lot of technology companies but we won’t build websites for them. What we can do is help with content they put on those sites that’s aligned with their efforts at the government market. You need to focus on your core, rather than getting distracted chasing the ‘next best idea’ which could be nickels and dimes rather than real dollars.” More on this topic How Three Publishers Are Retooling for Growth Peter Goldstone Named President of Government Executive Media Group The Hanley Wood Bench Peter Goldstone Returns to Hanley Wood As CEO Hanley Wood Begins Turning the Battleship Around Atlantic Media’s Government Executive Revamps Digital Strategy, WebsiteJust In BabyCenter Sold to Ziff Davis Parent J2 Media | News & Notes Meredith Corp. Makes Digital-Side Promotions | People on the Move The Atlantic Names New Global Marketing Head | People on the Move TIME Names New Sales, Marketing Leads | People on the Move Shanker Out, Litterick In as CEO of EnsembleIQ Bonnier Corp. Terminates Editor-in-Chief for Ethics BreachPowered by Atlantic Media has invested heavily in remaking its flagship brand The Atlantic, as well as National Journal, and so far, has been rewarded on both fronts. Now the company is turning to its b-to-b division, Government Executive Media, with a plan to double revenue in less than five years. Shortly after joining Government Executive in February, CEO Peter Goldstone sat down with Jerry Shair’s Boiling Point ideation company to map out a plan. “We see five to seven opportunities around digital media, education (business learning), print, events, data, research and analytics,” says Goldstone. “Some platforms we already have, others we will be developing. We can take our horizontal play and go into other niches, or build out a vertical by audience or topic.” That includes an overhauled media platform. “This is about developing a whole new launch platform for Government Executive,” says Goldstone. “They had already gone through a digital transformation-the editor-in-chief and group publisher both came from the digital side-but the platform wasn’t positioned for growth, it was positioned for the migration of dollars from print to digital.” The first step is investing in (to the tune of six figures) and redesigning Government Executive (conducted by celebrated design firm Pentagram, which also handled redesigns for The Atlantic and National Journal). “Even though we have an incredible Web platform, the audience demographic is really 40 and 50-year-old people in high levels of government,” says Goldstone. “They still rely heavily on the magazine, which we felt was a bit neglected.” last_img read more

Alia Bhatt to kickstart shooting for Rajamoulis RRR featuring Ajay Devgn Ram

first_imgRRR release dateSS Rajamouli’s RRR is currently the most-talked-about movie in Tollywood. It is a known fact that Alia Bhatt has been roped in to play one of the female leads in the movie. Fresh reports are that Alia Bhatt will be part of a one-month schedule. As per the report, Alia Bhatt is all set to head to New Delhi to start shooting for RRR. Alia is to be seen as one of the female leads in this movie which is a fictional representation of the lives of two patriotic heroes. Ram Charan and Alia Bhatt are paired up to play the roles of Alluri Seetharama Raju and Sita, respectively. Alia BhattTwitterIt has been reported that one of the shoot schedules was recently wrapped up. One of the sources believes that the one-month schedule would be shot at different places and real locations, rather than laying huge sets. The same source reports that a few action sequences will be compiled too. So, it appears like SS Rajamouli and team are going to have a busy summer.NTR is to play the role of Komaram Bheem in this movie. SS Rajamouli has invited the public to propose for an apt title which would match the abbreviation for RRR. Ajay Devgn will be seen in an important role in this fictional drama.Rajamouli intends to wrap up the shoot this year and move on to post-production works. RRR is all set to hit the screens on July 30, 2020.last_img read more

Baghdad suicide blasts kill 26

first_imgIraqi security forces inspect the site of a bomb attack in Baghdad, Iraq 15 January, 2018. Photo: ReutersA double suicide bombing killed 26 people in Baghdad on Monday, officials said, the second such attack in the Iraqi capital in three days.Dr Abdel Ghani al-Saadi, health chief for east Baghdad, reported “26 dead and 90 wounded”.”Two suicide bombers blew themselves up in Tayyaran Square in central Baghdad,” said General Saad Maan, spokesman for the Joint Operations Command, which includes the army and the police.Tayyaran Square is a bustling centre of commerce and a place where day labourers gather in the early morning waiting for jobs.It has been the site of deadly attacks in the past.An AFP photographer at the site of the bombing said many ambulances had gathered and security forces had been deployed in large numbers.There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but most such attacks in Iraq are the work of the Islamic State jihadist group.In December, the government announced the “end of the war” against IS, which has been expelled from the Baghdad region and urban areas of Iraq that it controlled.Jihadist elements are still active, however, north of Baghdad.last_img read more

Male baboons found to engage in feticide

first_img Infanticide has been documented in a variety of species, including lions, rodents, whales, and many types of primates, including humans. The general consensus in the scientific community is that the behavior occurs because it makes the mother more available to the male that does the killing. Less common is feticide, where a male causes harm to a pregnant female that results in the death of the fetus. In this new effort, the researchers report on the first-ever evidence of feticide in baboons.Prior research has shown that baboons engage in infanticide, but until now, it was not known that sometimes males also engage in feticide. In studying baboons in the Amboseli basin in Kenya the researchers report that they observed a number of feticide episodes by males that were new to a group. They note also that such attacks often left the mother dead as well, thus defeating the purpose of the attack. They report that causing a mother to abort a fetus reduced both pregnancy and lactation times, making the females more readily available for mating if they managed to survive the attack. They noted also that in cases when the female did survive, it was often the case that she would mate with her attacker.The researchers report that such attacks happened more often during periods of scarce resources; when new males managed to achieve high status quickly; when there were a lot of infants in a group; or if the males remained with a new group for more than three months. The team notes that it was obviously much more difficult to spot feticide than infanticide—they had to change their study habits to follow females after intercourse for a period of time to note changes in physiology or behavior that likely signaled a pregnancy and then to watch for episodes of violence against them and what followed afterwards. © 2017 Phys.org (Phys.org)—A team of researchers from several institutions in the U.S., some with ties to the Institute of Primate Research, National Museums of Kenya, has found that male baboons in the wild at times engage in feticide. In their paper published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, the researchers describe their observations and offer some theories on why they believe it occurs. Journal information: Proceedings of the Royal Society B This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. Some baboon males are prone to commit domestic violence when forced to move into a group with few fertile females, researchers find. Credit: Photo by Catherine Markham, Stony Brook Universitycenter_img Citation: Male baboons found to engage in feticide (2017, January 18) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2017-01-male-baboons-engage-feticide.html Explore further Male Manogea porracea spiders found to care for young More information: Matthew N. Zipple et al. Conditional fetal and infant killing by male baboons, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2017). DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2561AbstractSexually selected feticide—the death of infants in utero as a result of male behaviour—has only rarely been described or analysed, although it is presumed to be favoured by the same selective pressures that favour sexually selected infanticide. To test this hypothesis, we measured the frequency of feticide and infanticide by male baboons of the Amboseli basin in Kenya, and examined which characteristics of a male and his environment made him more likely to commit feticide and/or infanticide. We found a dramatic increase in fetal and infant death rates, but no increase in death rates of 1- to 2-year-old individuals, following the immigration of males who stood to benefit from feticide and infanticide. Specifically, fetal and infant death rates were highest following immigrations in which: (i) the immigrant male rapidly attained high rank, (ii) that male remained consistently resident in the group for at least three months, (iii) food availability and social group range overlap was relatively low and (iv) relatively many pregnant females and/or dependent infants were present. Together, these results provide strong evidence for the existence of both sexually selected feticide and infanticide in our population, and they indicate that feticide and infanticide are conditional male behavioural strategies employed under particular circumstances.Press releaselast_img read more